The Prediction Details

Full Prediction Statement

While the consensus estimate shows the annual rate hitting the 3% threshold for the month, the senior economist is anticipating the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each, though he thinks that the range of possible outcomes for headline could be between that figure and 3.1%.

Predictor

José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers

Prediction Date

November 12, 2025

Prediction Published In

November's inflation report is the first to be released after the shutdown. Here's what to expect

Prediction Source

www.cnbc.com

Fulfillment Statement

Upon release of the November CPI report

The Prediction in Context

Source: www.cnbc.com

While the consensus estimate shows the annual rate hitting the 3% threshold for the month, the senior economist is anticipating the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each, though he thinks that the range of possible outcomes for headline could be between that figure and 3.1%. If the report were to show a 2.9% reading, it could offer some positive momentum in stocks heading into 2026. In fact, Torres believes that such a number would clear the path for a so-called Santa Claus rally. He also thinks it would have an impact on the interest rate outlook for next year – a period during which the Fed projects one rate cut.