Prediction
José Torres anticipates the headline and core CPI readings to be lower than expected at 2.9%, with possible outcomes ranging between 2.9% and 3.1%.
Predicted By: José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers on November 12, 2025
The Prediction Details
Full Prediction Statement
While the consensus estimate shows the annual rate hitting the 3% threshold for the month, the senior economist is anticipating the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each, though he thinks that the range of possible outcomes for headline could be between that figure and 3.1%.
Predictor
José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers
Prediction Date
November 12, 2025
Prediction Published In
November's inflation report is the first to be released after the shutdown. Here's what to expect
Prediction Source
www.cnbc.comFulfillment Statement
Upon release of the November CPI report
The Prediction in Context
Source: www.cnbc.com
While the consensus estimate shows the annual rate hitting the 3% threshold for the month, the senior economist is anticipating the headline and core readings to be lower than expected at 2.9% each, though he thinks that the range of possible outcomes for headline could be between that figure and 3.1%. If the report were to show a 2.9% reading, it could offer some positive momentum in stocks heading into 2026. In fact, Torres believes that such a number would clear the path for a so-called Santa Claus rally. He also thinks it would have an impact on the interest rate outlook for next year – a period during which the Fed projects one rate cut.