The Prediction Details

Full Prediction Statement

In fact, Torres believes that such a number would clear the path for a so-called Santa Claus rally.

Predictor

José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers

Prediction Date

November 10, 2025

Prediction Published In

November's inflation report is the first to be released after the shutdown. Here's what to expect

Prediction Source

www.cnbc.com

Fulfillment Statement

By the end of 2025

The Prediction in Context

Source: www.cnbc.com

If the report were to show a 2.9% reading, it could offer some positive momentum in stocks heading into 2026. In fact, Torres believes that such a number would clear the path for a so-called Santa Claus rally. He also thinks it would have an impact on the interest rate outlook for next year – a period during which the Fed projects one rate cut. "It really would strengthen monetary policy easing expectations in the last inflation report – CPI report – of 2025 if we could keep inflation in the twos rather than it increasing up to the threes," Torres added.