The Prediction Details

Full Prediction Statement

“This regime will simply replace itself.”

Predictor

Unnamed Iran expert interviewed by Jonathan Freedland in January

Prediction Date

N/A

Prediction Published In

Even taking Trump’s confused reasons for the Iran war at face value, it’s still a total disaster | Jonathan Freedland

Prediction Source

www.theguardian.com

Fulfillment Statement

Following efforts to decapitate Iran’s leadership through military strikes, over the course of the war’s leadership removals

The Prediction in Context

Source: www.theguardian.com

Scholars of the country warned long before the first salvoes were fired on 28 February that killing the top man, and even removing entire layers of leadership, would not be enough. After nearly half a century, the apparatus of the Islamic Republic is too entrenched, too committed to its own survival, to be felled so easily. As one Iran expert I spoke to put it in January: “This regime will simply replace itself.” Sure enough, supreme leader Khamenei has been replaced by supreme leader Khamenei. If the plan had been to repeat Trump’s Venezuela adventure, swapping out one dictator for a more pliable, US-friendly successor, so far it doesn’t seem to have worked. To distil what the former head of the CIA, David Petraeus, told the Unholy podcast this week: “We were hoping for Delcy Rodríguez … Instead, what we got is a young Kim Jong-un.” And, of course, life has got no easier for the people of Iran, desperate to be rid of the despots who rule over them.